Housing Starts soared in June, thumping analyst expectations for the second straight month.

A “housing start” is a new home on which construction has started.  Last month’s jump in single-family starts is the largest one-month jump since 2004.

To Wall Street, June’s figures are the latest signal that the country’s housing markets may be on the mend.

For home sellers, however, the news may not be so rosy.  With more homes expected to come on the market, price competition among sellers could intensify and — all things equal — that would push sales prices lower.

So far in 2009, that hasn’t happened. 

As home supply has grown, it’s been met by off-setting buyer demand.  Spurred by low mortgage rates and an $8,000 first-time homebuyer tax credit, Americans appear to find today’s home buying conditions somewhat ideal. 

As a result, purchase activity has been strong and first-time home buyers now account for close to 30 percent of existing home sales.

Rising Housing Starts can be a double-edged sword.  It shows strength that builders are more optimistic about the economy, but too much optimism can lead to a glut of unsold homes and that could reverse the recovery’s momentum.

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The government’s First-Time Home Buyer Tax Credit expires December 1, 2009. 

If you expect to use the program in conjunction with a home purchase, therefore, you may want to consider yourself officially “on the clock”. 

Assuming a 60-day window between contract and closing, there are now 77 days left to find a home and go under contract for it.

The First-Time Home Buyer Tax Credit refunds up to $8,000 at Tax Time for qualified home buyers.  A few of the program’s qualification criteria include:

• Home buyer must not have owned a primary residence in the past 36 months
• The home may not be purchased from a family member
• The household adjusted gross income must be below $95,000 for single tax filers and $170,000 for joint tax filers

The tax credit itself is limited to $8,000 or 10% of the purchase price, whichever is less. 

Remember, though: The refund is a true tax credit — not a deduction.  This means that a taxpayer owing $8,000 to the IRS and claiming the $8,000 First-Time Home Buyer Tax Credit would owe the IRS nothing on April 15, 2010.

The complete list of qualifying criteria is posted on the IRS website.

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For the fourth consecutive month, the country’s foreclosure activity was dominated by a small number of states.

As reported by RealtyTrac.com, more than 50 percent of the country’s foreclosure-related actions in June concentrated in just 3 states:

1. California
2. Florida
3. Nevada

The states rounding out the Top 10 include Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Texas, Ohio, Illinois and Colorado.

Meanwhile, June’s reported foreclosure figures are consistent with the data from earlier this year, suggesting that the foreclosure remedy plans put forth by the government and by lenders can barely keep pace with the national default rate.

Foreclosure-related actions nationwide are up 5 percent from May.

The silver lining in data this negative is that foreclosures are creating tremendous buying opportunities for the right buyers.  Because foreclosed homes tend to sell at a discount versus non-foreclosed homes and because mortgage rates are low, home sales are showing strength in a multitude of markets because of ample supply at relatively cheap prices.

Distressed homes accounted for one-third of all existing home sales in May.

Search the complete June 2009 foreclosure report for yourself, including foreclosure heat maps and other trends on the RealtyTrac website.

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Once again, the housing market is showing that its worst days may be over.

According to the Census Bureau, the number of new homes sold in June leapt by 11 percent from the month prior.  It stands as the biggest one-month jump in 8 years.

A “new home sale” is when a home in any stage of construction — not yet started, under construction, or already completed — goes under contract, often with a builder.  It’s the opposite of an “existing home sale”.

In addition to surging sales, the monthly supply of new homes fell to its lowest level in 11 years.

Because home values are based on the relative supply and demand for a particular home in a particular area, anytime that demand for homes grows faster than supply, we would expect prices to rise. 

Indeed, that’s what we’ve been seeing.  The combination of low interest rates, seller-paid incentives and a first-time home buyer tax credit is bringing buyers into the market faster than new supply can come online.  It’s one reason why home prices have stopped falling across many parts of the country.

It’s also why home buyers may find it tougher to get “a good deal” in real estate later this year and into 2010.  If demand stays high and supplies fall further, sellers should regain the upper-hand in contract negotiations.

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Mortgage markets worsened for the third straight Tuesday after the government reported June’s Retail Sales report came in slightly better than expected.

Since falling to near 5.000 percent last week, 30-year fixed conforming mortgage rates have risen by almost 3/8.

It’s a similar mortgage rate pattern to what we’ve seen over the last 10 months — rates drift down to near their “all-time lows”, and then surge higher over just a few days time.

This week’s movement, in particular, is vexing home buyers and would-be refinancers. 

Many people thought mortgage rates would break below the 5.000 percent threshold.  The markets, however, had other ideas.

In addition to the unexpectedly strong Retail Sales data, last month’s Producer Price Index reported higher than expectations, too. 

A rising PPI is important to rate shoppers because the figure is akin to the Cost of Living measurement for household, but for American businesses instead.  The thought goes that if business costs are rising, consumer costs will eventually rise, too, as businesses share their expenses with American households.

This is inflationary, of course, and inflation is awful for mortgage rates.  It’s part of the reason why mortgage rates closed higher again Tuesday.

All year long, mortgage rates have been jumpy and unpredictable.  This past week has been no different and it’s why you shouldn’t necessarily try to time for a market bottom with mortgage rates. 

If an interest rate looks good to you today and the payment is manageable, consider locking it in.  There’s no guarantee rates will ever fall back toward 5.

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The number of homes under contract to sell increased in May. 

It’s the fourth straight month in which sales volume increased, corroborating the growing notion that housing is on the mend in most U.S. markets.

Consider these other housing-related stories from the past month:

• Existing Home Sales are rising
• New home supplies are falling
• The Case-Shiller Index is turning positive-like

Put it all together and it looks like the housing market is about to reach its bottom (if it hasn’t already).

But just because homes are going under contract to sell doesn’t mean that they actually will sell.  A “deal” can fall apart for all sorts of reasons including failed home inspections, buyer-seller disputes, and mortgage-related problems.

In general, though, as the number of pending contracts increase, we find that Existing Home Sales rise, too, some 45-60 days into the future.  And so long as buyers’ demand for homes remains strong, we would expect that home prices edge higher.

It’s too soon to say that housing has turned the corner for certain, but there’s an awful lot of data lately that suggests that it has.

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Each month, the National Association of REALTORS^® releases the Existing Home Sales report.  It’s a detailed look at “used” home sale data from all four regions of the country.

Among the key findings of each Existing Home Sales report is something called the “median sales price”, the statistical price point at which half of the homes in the U.S. sold for more, and half sold for less. 

Last month, the median sales price in the United States fell to $165,400, down 15.5 percent from a year ago.

Nevertheless, just because the median sales price is lower from last year doesn’t mean that the housing market is losing steam. The median sales price is just the middle point of all home sales in all U.S. markets.  By definition, it groups New York City and Danville, Illinois; Los Angeles and Cheyenne — markets that have little do with one another. 

When median sales prices are falling, it doesn’t point to housing weakness, per se — just that more homes are selling at the lower end of the pricing spectrum than at the higher end.

Going forward, it’s believed that a reduction in home supplies is the key to a complete, national housing recovery.  It’s encouraging, therefore, in a month known for a high volume of new listings, that the number of homes sold kept pace with the number of new homes available for sale. 

The current housing inventory stands at 9.7 months, flat from January.

(Image courtesy: The Wall Street Journal)

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The national housing market got its third piece of good news in 3 days:

1. Monday: Existing Home Sales up
2. Tuesday: Home values appear higher nationally
3. Wednesday: New Home Sales up

And although national real estate statistics are irrelevant to the local markets in which real estate transactions happen, to a country of would-be and wanna-be home buyers, repeated positive news on housing can be a strong signal that it’s time to get off the sidelines.

At least, that’s what the data is showing us.  According to an industry trade group, first-time home buyers accounted for half of all sales of previously-owned homes. 

The stimulus package’s $8,000 tax credit likely played a role in this 50 percent figure, as well as sagging home prices in most markets and low mortgage rates nationwide.

But lest we carried away, we can’t forget that February’s New Home Sales is still the second-lowest tally on record and that two months of data doesn’t define “turnaround”.

On the other hand, if the trend continues through the Spring Buying Season, we’ll likely look back at Winter 2009 as the low point in housing.

(Image courtesy: LA Times)

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“Most of the biggest real estate fortunes were not made in good times, but in bad times like this” Barbara Corcoran reminds us in this talk with NBC. 

It’s important perspective for Americans wondering how to invest in foreclosed properties without losing their cash or their credit rating.

In the 4-minute interview, Corcoran quips on the basics and the essentials of foreclosure investing,

1. “Everyone who loses their shirt loses it somewhere else.”
2. “Every big shark started small.”
3. “The house on the corner sets the tone for the block.”

She also lends some personal perspective to rent rolls, the cost of losing a tenant, and finding a good business partner.

Banks are anxious to sell their foreclosed homes and that makes this an ideal time for shrewd real estate investors.  If you’re new to the game, watch the video and take good notes.

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The basis of most mortgage lending is credit scoring.  In general, the higher a person’s credit score, the lower his offered mortgage interest rate.

Despite the many credit scoring models in use today, however, just 3 are relevant to American homeowners:

1. The Equifax BEACON^® score
2. The Experian Fair Isaac Risk Model
3. The TransUnion EMPIRICA^®

Generically, these scoring models generate what are commonly known as “FICO” scores.

FICO scores are measurements of probability.  The higher a person’s credit score, by definition, the less likely a person is to default on his home loan.  This is one reason why credit scoring has added importance lately — mortgage lenders are very careful about what they’re lending and to whom.

Notably, minimum FICO thresholds have been added to all types of mortgage loans.

FICO scoring has 5 main components as listed above.  Payment history and credit capacity are two of the largest pieces, but a myriad of other factors contribute to a credit score, too.  For example, the longer your reported history of managing credit, the more favorably your credit score will respond.

The myFICO.com website does a terrific job with credit education, explaining in plain language the ins-and-out of credit scoring and ways to boost your score.  It also makes a free, 20-page PDF available for download. 

Whether you’re a homeowner or lifetime renter — consider it required reading.

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